Analyst Says Serious iPad Rival Unlikely ‘Till Windows 8
Tablet Sales Hurting PC Growth
That Hewlett-Packard (HP) TouchPad sales bonanza a couple weeks ago sure did capture the attention of techies. Thousands lined up at retail stores for hours to get their hands on a $99 16GB HP TouchPad, even though the tablet had been discontinued. But underlying that story was one very obvious fact: that Apple's iPad remains alone atop the tablet heap. And, in a new report one analyst says that's unlikely to change until at least after the release of Microsoft's Windows 8.
"We are still awaiting the emergence of a clear No. 2 player, though this may not happen until the launch of Windows 8 in [the second half of] 2012," wrote J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz in a recent sales forecast. Inside that report, Moskowitz predicted that Apple Inc. would dominate the tablet market through the remainder of fiscal 2011, with the iPad accounting for about 70 per cent of all tablet sales.
Somewhere down the line, Google Android-based tablets will compete with the Research in Motion (RIM) PlayBook, Samsung Galaxy Tab and Lenovo IdeaPad A1 (and others) for the remaining 30 per cent.
So, what's the problem with non-iPad tablets? Hardware-wise, not much, actually. But Apple has a knack for both marketing its products and maintaining an online App Store with hundreds of thousands of applications. In essence, if you're looking for a tablet you'll hardly escape advertising for the iPad, while the oodles of apps that are available seems to mean it offers more bang for the buck.
Looking down the road, it's possible that Windows 8 could change that. It's said that Microsoft is building the operating system with tablets in mind, and will also offer better integration with its own online applications outlet. If hardware makers like Samsung, HP, Lenovo, and Acer embrace Windows 8 and a Windows-based applications store, the iPad could be in trouble.
There may also be incentive for Microsoft to build its own tablets, in much the same way it started building its own video game console in 2001. According to Moskowitz, tablets and smartphones are starting to hurt PC sales, and Windows 8 will have to change that.
"In our view, smartphones and tablets are hurting PC growth, as consumers are being distracted by the array of higher-capability device options available," Moskowitz said. "In addition to a cannibalization effect, we believe that tablets, plus smartphones, are resulting in consumers deferring PC purchases."
For now, Moskowitz thinks that the only real competition for the iPad may come from an Amazon tablet planned for a fall 2011 or spring 2012 release. "While the OS is likely to remain a weak spot on an Amazon device, we believe the brand name, content and distribution capabilities of Amazon pose risks to Apple's dominance of the tablet market," Moskowitz noted.
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