GM Predicts Driverless Cars for 2020
But is it a realistic forecast?
Back in 2002 film fans flocked to theaters to catch a glimpse of the still-not-quite-crazy Tom Cruise in Minority Report, a sci-fi thriller set in the not-too-distant future. One of the coolest and most intriguing futuristic concepts featured in the movie was the use of driverless vehicles. In the film, it appeared to make the daily commute little more than a bit of quiet time.
But that kind of technology is a long way off, no? Well, according to General Motors, we might start seeing these kinds of vehicles on American roads by the end of this decade.
In a recent report, GM not only predicted the arrival of self-driving cars by 2020, but also noted a number of the changes aroused by such an evolution. For one, GM believes that automated driving could help cut fuel costs by about 15 per cent. It also says that, as research around the technology advances, fuel consumption could probably see even deeper cuts down the road.
But it won't be just fuel costs that see big changes. Our highways would look a lot different, too, since automated driving systems would, theoretically, allow cars to drive closer together. Without crazy humans piloting vehicles, we wouldn’t have to worry about distractions causing accidents. That could also mean car-makers would be able to use lighter materials for their vehicles, further cutting down on costs.
GM isn't the only corporation or agency interested in a driverless future. Google has talked about this issue before, and why not? The company's search engine and Google Maps tool would likely form a major part of the technology's foundation.
Even the U.S. Federal Highway Administration is said to be investigating the concept. According to reports, it’s been investigating the advantages of automated intersection controls for years. In a driverless future, intersections could be totally controlled by computers, reducing the amount of time we wait at a red light.
Of course, big questions remain. What would happen to the automotive insurance industry? How would licensing work? Would there even be drivers' licenses in this kind of a future?
And would speeds be higher or lower than they are now?
Finally, what's the chance the whole system goes Terminator and the machines use automated vehicles to take over the world?
All of these concerns deserve some thought over these next eight years or so.
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